Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 10554 | 45664 | 338 | 98 | 321 | 448 |
| February 01 2021 | 10583 | 45713 | 338 | 98 | 312 | 459 |
| February 02 2021 | 10597 | 45798 | 337 | 98 | 286 | 464 |
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| February 05 2021 | 10707 | 46044 | 341 | 101 | 318 | 436 |
| February 06 2021 | 10743 | 46121 | 342 | 101 | 289 | 432 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 2.3 | 7.6% | 22 | 0.19% | 35 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.1 | 13.1% | 38 | 0.28% | 57 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 9.3 | 27.3% | 79 | 0.38% | 104 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.1 | 12.5% | 36 | 0.26% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.6 | 13.8% | 40 | 0.38% | 55 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.9 | 8% | 23 | 0.18% | 44 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.1 | 8.7% | 25 | 0.22% | 38 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.0 | 9% | 26 | 0.25% | 38 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 36 | 30.4 | 100% | 289 | 0.28% | 432 | 0.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 6822 | 26892 | 204 | 80 | 223 | 309 |
| February 01 2021 | 6833 | 26922 | 205 | 80 | 191 | 299 |
| February 02 2021 | 6833 | 26966 | 205 | 80 | 176 | 290 |
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| February 05 2021 | 6888 | 27146 | 209 | 84 | 178 | 246 |
| February 06 2021 | 6902 | 27191 | 209 | 86 | 165 | 245 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 7.3% | 12 | 0.15% | 17 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.4 | 13.3% | 22 | 0.26% | 31 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.9 | 12.7% | 21 | 0.3% | 31 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.4 | 14.5% | 24 | 0.29% | 37 | 0.44% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.1 | 12.1% | 20 | 0.26% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.6 | 17% | 28 | 0.29% | 40 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.4 | 9.7% | 16 | 0.19% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 4 | 1.7 | 13.3% | 22 | 0.31% | 30 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 14 | 14.4 | 100% | 165 | 0.26% | 245 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 5134 | 17970 | 217 | 71 | 184 | 245 |
| February 01 2021 | 5134 | 17979 | 217 | 71 | 150 | 223 |
| February 02 2021 | 5135 | 18003 | 217 | 71 | 129 | 222 |
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| February 05 2021 | 5179 | 18131 | 221 | 73 | 136 | 195 |
| February 06 2021 | 5183 | 18154 | 220 | 72 | 124 | 177 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 4% | 5 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 12.1% | 15 | 0.28% | 20 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.4 | 16.1% | 20 | 0.44% | 23 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.9 | 9.7% | 12 | 0.22% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.3 | 12.9% | 16 | 0.32% | 26 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.6 | 17.7% | 22 | 0.32% | 33 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.1 | 12.9% | 16 | 0.25% | 24 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | -1 | 1.6 | 14.5% | 18 | 0.28% | 24 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 4 | 8.7 | 100% | 124 | 0.27% | 177 | 0.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 11728 | 49148 | 331 | 73 | 535 | 703 |
| February 01 2021 | 11753 | 49242 | 333 | 73 | 536 | 675 |
| February 02 2021 | 11774 | 49361 | 339 | 74 | 495 | 672 |
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| February 05 2021 | 11869 | 49775 | 341 | 74 | 452 | 652 |
| February 06 2021 | 11893 | 49892 | 342 | 74 | 435 | 614 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 6.2% | 27 | 0.23% | 36 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 3.7 | 16.3% | 71 | 0.43% | 121 | 0.73% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 6.0 | 26.7% | 116 | 0.55% | 159 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.4 | 15.4% | 67 | 0.49% | 79 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.7 | 10.1% | 44 | 0.32% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.3 | 10.6% | 46 | 0.32% | 69 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.1 | 8.5% | 37 | 0.26% | 44 | 0.31% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.3 | 6.2% | 27 | 0.21% | 37 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 24 | 29.4 | 100% | 435 | 0.37% | 614 | 0.52% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 37949 | 312511 | 1151 | 251 | 1203 | 1516 |
| February 01 2021 | 38020 | 312912 | 1152 | 251 | 1076 | 1498 |
| February 02 2021 | 38085 | 312902 | 1157 | 251 | 1007 | 1522 |
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| February 05 2021 | 38487 | 314043 | 1162 | 256 | 1135 | 1543 |
| February 06 2021 | 38588 | 314338 | 1168 | 256 | 1192 | 1510 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.1 | 5.2% | 62 | 0.1% | 77 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 27 | 26.1 | 21.3% | 254 | 0.36% | 297 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 31.0 | 30% | 358 | 0.34% | 436 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 11.3 | 11% | 131 | 0.17% | 187 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 9.6 | 10.6% | 126 | 0.19% | 168 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 11.4 | 12.2% | 146 | 0.22% | 189 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6.9 | 5.9% | 70 | 0.13% | 95 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 8 | 4.3 | 3.8% | 45 | 0.09% | 61 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 101 | 105.7 | 100% | 1192 | 0.22% | 1510 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 2021 | 542415 | 2507600 | 24298 | 5896 | 14314 | 20621 |
| February 01 2021 | 543165 | 2510670 | 24337 | 5897 | 12994 | 20288 |
| February 02 2021 | 544260 | 2512757 | 24460 | 5937 | 12408 | 19858 |
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| February 05 2021 | 548221 | 2527562 | 24734 | 6020 | 13003 | 18050 |
| February 06 2021 | 549155 | 2531066 | 24824 | 6052 | 12609 | 17303 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 55 | 70.6 | 6.2% | 787 | 0.12% | 1075 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 153 | 159.0 | 14% | 1771 | 0.23% | 2354 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 132 | 176.1 | 16% | 2019 | 0.27% | 2734 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 136 | 157.1 | 14.3% | 1799 | 0.24% | 2476 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 148 | 152.1 | 14.1% | 1773 | 0.25% | 2455 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 121 | 155.1 | 14.1% | 1780 | 0.22% | 2511 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 84 | 126.7 | 11.2% | 1414 | 0.19% | 1977 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 105 | 109.9 | 10% | 1266 | 0.2% | 1721 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 934 | 1106.7 | 100% | 12609 | 0.22% | 17303 | 0.3% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 | 41.9 | 49.7 | 30.4 | 36.6 | 28.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37.9 | 14.4 | 23.9 | 22.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39.1 | 8.7 | 18.6 | 21.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.9 | 73.1 | 74.7 | 29.4 | 45 | 20% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.6 | 41.8 | 42 | 105.7 | 112.7 | 23.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.7 | 31.1 | 36.1 | 1106.7 | 1545.1 | 21.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5150"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges